EV Slowdown Lifts 2026 Gasoline Outlook: Caribbean Refiners and Marketers Take Note

Global oil refiners have revised their 2026 gasoline demand outlook upwards by roughly 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) following a sharper-than-expected slowdown in electric vehicle (EV) sales growth across the United States, Germany and France. Industry bodies including the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report now expect global gasoline demand to peak no earlier than 2028, two to three years later than previously projected.

The slowdown reflects a combination of factors: the rollback of EV purchase incentives in Germany and other EU member states, the imposition of tariffs on Chinese EVs by the European Commission and the United States, charging infrastructure bottlenecks in suburban America, and consumer concerns about residual values. Tesla, BYD, Volkswagen and Stellantis have all trimmed EV production targets for 2026, while hybrid sales have surged, supported by Toyota, Honda and Hyundai.

For Trinidad and Tobago, which closed its 165,000 bpd Pointe-a-Pierre refinery in 2018, the news is highly relevant. Paria Fuel Trading Company, the state entity responsible for importing and distributing refined products, sources gasoline and diesel from refiners in the US Gulf Coast, Curacao and Aruba. Stronger gasoline demand and tighter Atlantic Basin margins typically translate into higher landed costs at the Pointe-a-Pierre and Point Fortin terminals, with knock-on effects on the regulated pump price structure and the fuel subsidy bill.

The Ministry of Finance has been gradually adjusting the price stabilisation mechanism, and the latest budget targets full liberalisation of diesel and super gasoline prices by mid-2026. With Brent expected to average US$80 per barrel and Gulf Coast gasoline cracks projected at US$22 per barrel for 2026, the cost-of-living impact on T&T consumers could be material, particularly in the maxi-taxi and goods transport sectors.

For the wider Caribbean, the gasoline outlook shapes investment in midstream and downstream infrastructure. Companies such as Sol Petroleum, Unipet and Rubis are weighing terminal expansions in Trinidad, Barbados and the Dominican Republic, while Atlantic LNG and NGC are exploring opportunities to supply marine gas oil and LNG bunkering in the Caribbean, where the International Maritime Organization's emissions caps are tightening.

On the upstream side, the delayed gasoline peak is good news for Heritage Petroleum and the operators of Trinidad's small but profitable oil fields. Sustained demand for refined products supports Brent prices above US$75, which underpins fiscal stability and supports the marginal economics of mature fields such as the Forest Reserve and Trinmar offshore areas. Heritage has been investing in waterflooding and infill drilling at its onshore Soldado field, with the aim of stabilising production at 40,000 bpd through 2030.

Energy Minister Stuart Young has emphasised that T&T's energy transition strategy must balance fiscal realism with climate ambition. The slower-than-expected EV adoption gives the country additional time to monetise its hydrocarbon resources while developing renewable energy projects, including the 112 MW Project Lara solar park led by Lightsource bp and Shell.