US LNG to Overtake Qatar in 2026 as Plaquemines Ramps Up: Atlantic LNG Feels the Squeeze

The United States is on track to overtake Qatar as the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in 2026, once Venture Global's Plaquemines facility in Louisiana reaches full nameplate capacity of 20 million tonnes per annum (mtpa). With Plaquemines added to existing operations at Sabine Pass, Cameron, Corpus Christi, Freeport, Cove Point, Elba Island and Calcasieu Pass, total US export capacity is expected to reach roughly 120 mtpa by the end of 2026, eclipsing Qatar's 77 mtpa.

The build-out has been turbocharged by the lifting of the Biden administration's pause on new LNG export permits and the strong demand pull from Europe, which continues to wean itself off Russian pipeline gas following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Cheniere Energy, Venture Global, Sempra and NextDecade are all pushing forward with brownfield expansions, while QatarEnergy itself is ramping up its North Field East and South projects to defend market share, aiming for 142 mtpa by 2030.

For Trinidad and Tobago, the news is a mixed blessing. Atlantic LNG, operated by Shell and BP at Point Fortin, has a nameplate capacity of 14.8 mtpa across four trains, though actual output has been constrained by upstream gas shortages, averaging closer to 10 mtpa in recent years. Train 1 was permanently shut down in 2024, and ongoing negotiations on the unitisation of the consortium have reshaped commercial terms, giving the National Gas Company (NGC) a larger stake in marketing.

The flood of US LNG into Europe and Asia is structurally lowering the price ceiling for Trinidad cargoes. Title Transfer Facility (TTF) prices in the Netherlands are expected to average EUR 32 per megawatt-hour in 2026, down from the EUR 40 levels seen in 2024, while Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) prices in Asia are projected at US$12.50 per MMBtu. With shipping costs from Point Fortin to Europe at roughly US$0.80 per MMBtu, Trinidad cargoes remain competitive on a netback basis but face tighter margins.

The Caribbean's geographic advantage, particularly the short sail to the US Atlantic seaboard and proximity to the Panama Canal for Asian deliveries, remains a strategic asset. However, Trinidad's gas supply challenges, with upstream production hovering around 2.6 billion cubic feet per day against a system demand of over 3.5 billion, mean that Atlantic LNG cannot easily ramp up to compete on volume. The Manatee field development with Shell, targeting first gas in 2027, and the Dragon gas agreement with Venezuela, are critical to refilling the LNG trains.

For NGC and the Ministry of Energy, the policy response is multi-pronged: accelerate cross-border gas projects, secure new long-term offtake contracts with European and Asian utilities, and explore floating storage and regasification (FSRU) opportunities in the Caribbean and Central America. The Dominican Republic, Jamaica and Panama all represent potential markets where Trinidad LNG can compete on freight against Gulf Coast suppliers.