US LNG Export Capacity to Overtake Qatar in 2026 After Plaquemines Comes Online, Guyana Gas Outlook

The United States is on track to overtake Qatar as the world's largest exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) during 2026, according to projections from the Energy Information Administration and confirmed by industry tracker Kpler. The decisive factor is the full commissioning of Venture Global's Plaquemines LNG facility in Louisiana, whose 20 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of capacity is being brought online in 36 modular trains. Combined with Cheniere's Corpus Christi Stage 3, Sabine Pass, Cameron LNG and the upcoming Rio Grande LNG, US export capacity is projected to cross 145 mtpa, surpassing Qatar's 126 mtpa.

For Guyana, the news matters on several fronts. First, it confirms that the Atlantic basin is becoming a deeply liquid LNG market with abundant cargoes and competitive netbacks, which is good news for Guyanese gas monetisation plans. Second, it reinforces that the marginal cost of LNG into Europe will be set increasingly by US Henry Hub plus liquefaction and shipping, providing a transparent benchmark against which any Guyanese gas-export ambition would need to compete.

The Stabroek block has already accumulated estimated resources of more than 11 billion barrels of oil equivalent, with the gas component sitting around 17 trillion cubic feet (tcf). The flagship gas-to-energy project, with a 225-kilometre subsea pipeline running from the Liza field to the Wales shore base on the West Bank of Demerara, is designed primarily for domestic power. However, government technical teams led by Director of Energy Mark Bynoe have repeatedly flagged that beyond 2030, Guyana could realistically host a 4 to 6 mtpa LNG facility if exploration confirms additional dry gas reserves outside Stabroek.

Industry players are circling. Chevron, through its acquisition of Hess, now holds Hess's 30 per cent stake in Stabroek, and Chevron has deep LNG expertise from its Australian Gorgon and Wheatstone projects. CNOOC, the third partner with 25 per cent, also has skin in the LNG game through projects in Mozambique and the South China Sea. ExxonMobil itself operates LNG plants in Papua New Guinea and Qatar's North Field expansion.

The competitive landscape, however, is tightening. With US LNG capacity expanding so rapidly, plus Qatar's North Field East and North Field South expansions adding another 48 mtpa by 2027, the global market could move into oversupply during the second half of this decade. Wood Mackenzie and BloombergNEF both expect spot prices at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands to soften toward EUR 25 to 30 per megawatt-hour by 2027, down from highs above EUR 80 during the 2022 energy crisis.

For Guyana, the lesson is to move with care and to anchor any LNG investment on long-term, oil-indexed contracts with creditworthy Asian buyers in Japan, South Korea and India, rather than chase spot exposure that may not be lucrative in a post-Plaquemines world.