EV Demand Growth Slows; Oil Refiners Revise Gasoline Outlook Upward for 2026, Boost for Guyana Crude

Major oil refiners and forecasters are quietly revising upward their gasoline demand projections for 2026. The International Energy Agency, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the EIA have all narrowed the gap in their outlooks, with consensus now pointing to global gasoline demand of around 27.8 million bpd next year, roughly 400,000 bpd higher than projections made just twelve months ago.

The reason is straightforward. Electric vehicle (EV) sales growth, while still positive, is no longer doubling every two years. In the United States, EV penetration is hovering around 9.4 per cent of new vehicle sales, well below earlier projections of 14 per cent. In Germany and France, the removal of generous purchase subsidies has cooled demand. In China, by contrast, EV adoption remains strong, but plug-in hybrids, which still consume gasoline, are gaining share over pure battery electric vehicles. Hertz and other fleet operators have publicly scaled back ambitious electrification plans, and Ford, General Motors and Stellantis have postponed several EV-only product launches.

For Guyana, the implication is favourable. Liza, Unity Gold, Payara Gold and the upcoming Yellowtail crude grades from the Stabroek block are all medium-sweet and yield strong gasoline cuts when run through complex refineries in the United States Gulf Coast, the Caribbean and Europe. Refiners such as Phillips 66, Marathon, Valero and Spain's Repsol have all been buyers of Guyanese cargoes over the last twelve months, with realisations typically running at small premiums to dated Brent.

The Ministry of Finance in Georgetown, working with Argus Media and Platts price assessments, has been quietly upgrading the assumed average realisation per barrel in its budget projections from US$74 to closer to US$80 for 2026. That single adjustment adds an estimated US$320 million to projected royalty and profit oil receipts, money that flows directly to the Natural Resource Fund and ultimately into the Consolidated Fund used for roads, schools and the new Demerara River bridge.

However, the picture is not uniformly positive. Diesel demand growth, traditionally tied to trucking, mining and marine, has been more sluggish, particularly in Europe where the Fit for 55 package is pushing decarbonisation of heavy transport. Jet fuel demand, on the other hand, has rebounded strongly, with global passenger traffic projected by IATA to exceed 5.2 billion travellers in 2026.

For Guyanese policy makers, the message from the slower EV transition is to avoid complacency but also to remain confident that oil demand will not collapse overnight. The Low Carbon Development Strategy 2030 explicitly recognises a window of opportunity through to about 2040 during which oil revenues can be deployed to diversify the economy into agriculture, eco-tourism, business process outsourcing and digital services. The longer the gasoline plateau lasts, the more time Guyana has to convert hydrocarbon wealth into long-lasting human capital and resilient infrastructure.