EV Sales Slowdown Lift Gasoline Demand Outlook fi 2026, Petrojam See Opportunity
Refiners worldwide revise gasoline forecasts upward as electric vehicle adoption slow in key markets, a shift weh benefit Petrojam an di Jamaica downstream sector.
Global refiners a revisin gasoline demand forecasts upward fi 2026 after a marked slowdown in electric vehicle (EV) adoption across di United States, Europe an even China. Di International Energy Agency (IEA) now project gasoline demand growth of 380,000 barrels per day (bpd) next year, double di previous estimate of 190,000 bpd. Di shift driven by di rollback of US federal EV tax credits under di Trump administration, EU member states scalin back purchase subsidies, an Chinese consumer fatigue wid di intense price war among BYD, Tesla an Geely.
In di United States, EV market share peak at 9.1% in Q3 2024 an then plateau at roun 8.4% through 2025. Ford, GM an Stellantis all delay or cancel EV-only platform investments, while hybrid sales surge 41% year-on-year. Toyota strategy of "multi-pathway" decarbonisation now look prescient, an di company gain market share in di US an Asian markets. In Europe, di expiration of German subsidies in late 2023 cause BEV sales fi drop 17% in 2024, an while 2025 see some recovery, di pace slower than di Fit for 55 target.
Fi Jamaica, weh import roun 11.2 million barrels of refined product annually (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, LPG), di stronger demand outlook mean better crack spreads at Petrojam an more reliable supply through di Caribbean barge market. Petrojam refinery configuration, doh ageing, still profitable when di 3-2-1 crack spread (3 barrels crude, 2 gasoline, 1 distillate) exceed US$18 per barrel a level easily achieved through most of 2025. Di company a evaluate a US$240 million upgrade fi increase gasoline yield an reduce sulphur content fi compliance wid Caribbean fuel standards.
Di Jamaica national vehicle fleet, roun 480,000 units, remain over 96% internal combustion. EV registrations grew to roun 1,800 units by mid-2025, mostly Chinese-made BYD Yuan Plus an MG ZS EV models, but high import duties an limited chargin infrastructure constrain di pace. Di Ministry of Science, Energy an Technology a workin pon a revised EV policy weh include reduced import duties fi vehicles under US$35,000 an a national chargin network target of 200 fast chargers by 2027.
Refiners globally a respondin to di new demand outlook. ExxonMobil, Marathon an Valero all signal increased utilisation rates fi 2026, an di Atlantic basin gasoline balance look tighter dan previously thought. Caribbean refiners includin Petrojam, Aruba (currently mothballed but under reactivation study by CITGO) an Curacao (under negotiation between RdK an several international parties) could all benefit if di trend persist.
Longer term, however, di structural shift toward electrification remain intact. China EV penetration still expected fi exceed 70% by 2030, an di country alone account fi over 60% of global EV sales. Di IEA still project gasoline demand peakin around 2027-2028 before enterin terminal decline. Fi Jamaica policymakers, di window fi monetisin existin downstream assets while plannin di transition narrow fast, an di Petroleum Corporation of Jamaica strategy will need careful calibration.
Fi consumers at di pump, di revised outlook unlikely fi mean cheaper gasoline in 2026, especially wid di OPEC+ cuts maintainin crude prices. Jamaican households should expect retail prices to remain in di J$220-240 per litre range fi regular 87, barring major geopolitical events.