OPEC+ Extends Voluntary 2.2 Million BPD Cuts Through End of 2026, Affecting Jamaica Fuel Bill
Saudi Arabia an Russia announce di extension of voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day, a move weh likely fi push up prices at Petrojam an di pump in Jamaica.
Di OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia an di Russian Federation, confirm di extension of voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) until December 2026. Di decision, taken at di Vienna ministerial meeting, surprise di market dem weh did expect a gradual unwind starting first quarter 2026. Brent crude jump 4.3% same day, settling near US$87 per barrel, while WTI close roun US$83.
Fi Jamaica, weh import nearly all a fi we crude an refined product, di news mean Petrojam will face higher feedstock cost over di coming months. Di refinery, weh process roun 35,000 bpd, depend pon Venezuelan an West African grades, an di spread between Brent an heavier crudes done widen already. Industry analysts a Kingston a project gasoline retail prices could climb between J$8 an J$14 per litre by mid-2026 if di cuts stay in place an di Jamaican dollar continue fi trade roun J$158 to di US dollar.
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman defend di move, sayin di group must "protect market stability" against weakening demand from China an a slower-dan-expected EV transition. Russia, weh face new EU sanctions, also support di extension fi protect Urals revenue. Di eight participatin countries Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, di UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria an Oman will review compliance monthly through di Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee.
Di International Energy Agency (IEA) project global demand growth a slow to 950,000 bpd in 2026, down from 1.3 million bpd in 2025, citin EV penetration in China weh now exceed 52% of new vehicle sales. Yet OPEC self-project demand of 1.5 million bpd growth, a gap weh continue fi create tension wid Western forecasters. Di cartel control roun 40% of global supply, an wid US shale productivity gains, market share concerns deh a di heart of every decision.
Caribbean energy ministers, includin Jamaica Minister Daryl Vaz, did meet in Port of Spain last month fi discuss bulk procurement an strategic reserves. Vaz indicate seh Jamaica a explore extendin di PetroCaribe-style arrangement wid Guyana, weh now produce 650,000 bpd from di Stabroek block. Such a deal could insulate Jamaica from some a di OPEC+ price pressure, though di logistics an commercial terms still under negotiation. Di Bank of Jamaica warn seh sustained crude above US$90 could push headline inflation back above di 6% upper target band, complicatin di MPC rate-cuttin path.
Fi consumers, di Petroleum Corporation of Jamaica advisin households fi consider efficiency upgrades, while di JUTC fleet conversion to CNG continue at a slower pace dan planned. Bauxite producers Jamalco an Noranda also a watch closely, since energy account fi nearly 40% of alumina production cost. Di OPEC+ extension dus reinforce di urgency fi Jamaica fi diversify im energy mix, wid LNG from New Fortress an renewables targetin 50% of di grid by 2030.