Latin American Refinery Capacity Expansion: Mexico Dos Bocas and Cuba Projects in Focus for Guyana

Latin America is finally adding meaningful refining capacity after more than a decade of stagnation. Mexico's flagship Olmeca refinery, located in Dos Bocas, Tabasco, is now operating at progressively higher utilisation rates after several false starts. Pemex, the State oil company, has reported that the 340,000 bpd plant is processing close to 180,000 bpd of mostly heavy Maya crude, with full ramp-up to nameplate capacity targeted for late 2026. In parallel, Cuba and its partners are working on rehabilitating the Cienfuegos refinery, a 65,000 bpd facility originally built with Soviet technology and modernised through a partnership with Venezuela's PDVSA.

For Guyana, these projects matter for two reasons. First, they alter regional crude flows. As Mexico processes more of its own Maya barrels domestically, fewer Mexican exports will be available to feed United States Gulf Coast refineries, which have historically blended Maya with light sweet crudes from the Permian and Eagle Ford. The Liza, Unity Gold and Payara crudes from the Stabroek block fit naturally into that blending slate, and Phillips 66 and Marathon have already signalled increased appetite for medium-sweet Guyanese cargoes.

Second, the Cuban project, modest as it is in scale, signals that Caribbean and Central American countries are reassessing their refining strategies after the painful supply shocks of recent years. Trinidad and Tobago has been studying options to revive the mothballed Petrotrin Pointe-a-Pierre refinery, while Curacao's Isla refinery and Aruba's San Nicolas plant continue to seek long-term operators. A regional refining renaissance, even a partial one, would create natural customers for Guyanese feedstock and could anchor security of supply for the entire CARICOM region.

Guyana itself remains without a domestic refinery, and the government has been pragmatic about this. Several studies, including one commissioned during the previous administration from Hartree Partners, concluded that a small refinery in the 30,000 to 50,000 bpd range would struggle to compete with massive Gulf Coast and Indian complexes. Instead, the focus has been on participating in the value chain through equity stakes or off-take agreements.

President Irfaan Ali, during recent CARICOM meetings, has floated the idea of Guyana taking a non-operated stake in a Caribbean refining project, possibly in Suriname where Staatsolie operates a 17,000 bpd facility at Tout Lui Faut, or in Trinidad if Pointe-a-Pierre is restarted. Such a stake would provide Guyana with refined product security at a time when Caribbean fuel imports remain a major source of inflation pressure.

The broader Latin American picture is also relevant for the Stabroek partners. ExxonMobil, with refining assets in Texas and Louisiana, continues to optimise its global slate. As Petrobras pivots toward exports, and as Colombia's Ecopetrol focuses on Cartagena, the Atlantic basin balance increasingly looks like a market where Guyanese barrels can secure long-term homes. For the Natural Resource Fund, that depth of demand translates into stable realisations and predictable inflows for the years ahead.